northern ireland census 2021 predictions

Furthermore, the category was not taken together with Church of Scotland into one category of Protestant and other Christian. However, Dr Paul Nolan said unionists need not be too alarmed by his forecast because coming from Catholic or Protestant community background does not necessarily equate with support for Irish unity or remaining in the UK. In 2018, an academic specialising in monitoring social trends said it was likely that Catholics would outnumber Protestants by 2021. (The 1981 Census, however, was conducted in difficult circumstances, and a campaign of non-cooperation was held in some areas which, according to NISRA, resulted in a lower than expected figure for those stating Catholic and a higher than expected figure for Not stated). However, their findings were not welcome in "decision-taking Dublin" and that former Taoiseach Dr. Garret FitzGerald was especially displeased. Includes paramilitaries, peace lines, and life after the Troubles. The reality? Normally, missing responses are imputed using standard statistical procedures. You can change your cookie settings at any time. This statement has also been quoted in a recent UNESCO report called Northern Ireland Returning to Violence. People could also write down other Christian-related denominations. However, there was no coding of write-in answers. However, this latter group later got added with the three main Protestant churches, to provide comparisons over years. The results of the 2011 census indicated that 45.1% of the population were Catholic. THE first results of the 2021 census are expected to emerge in March, however, the much-anticipated data showing the regional religious breakdown may not be published for a further six months. SHARE. Overview The population of Northern Ireland was 1,903,175 at the time of the 2021 Census. "I would earnestly advocate that the Friends of Ireland grouping of Congressmen, on Capitol Hill Washington, scrutinize the handling of the census taking of 2021, with a very keen eye, both while the figures are being processed and after the result is declared," Coogan wrote in the Irish News. Check benefits and financial support you can get, Limits on energy prices: Energy Price Guarantee, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Census 2021: population and household estimates for Northern Ireland. Religion brought up in, in Great Britain and Ireland. Find out more about what we do with your data. The statistics released . For the England and Wales census, there are no subcategories of the Christian response option.Religion brought up in, in Northern Ireland. However, right underneath, it also said that bringing together the information on Religion and Religion Brought up in, 45 per cent of the population were either Catholic or brought up as Catholic, while 48 per cent belonged to or were brought up in Protestant, Other Christian or Christian-related denominations. the census, the first since Brexit,. Eight-out-of-10 people took the online option. 11 minute read, EXPLAINER: How the Northern Ireland measures the number of Protestants and Catholics in the population. To help us improve GOV.UK, wed like to know more about your visit today. "Univariate census 2021 statistics for Northern Ireland on ethnicity, country of birth, passports held, religion, religion or religion brought up in, national identity, language, and household size will be published at 9.30 am on 22 September 2022. . Cover image showing relative populations between Protestants (red) and Catholics (blue); source: Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report, Number Five, October 2018. Well send you a link to a feedback form. The total of 1.9 million is the highest figure recorded since Northern Ireland. By Emet Dennis / May 25, 2021 . Politicians have been reacting to census figures which show there are more people from a Catholic background in Northern Ireland than Protestant for . - Elon Musk responds to Chris Heaton-Harris, Tributes paid to young GAA player Conor McCaughey who died suddenly, Winter Ball and online auction set to raise vital funds for Friends of the Cancer Centre, Domino's looks to World Cup boost after quarterly sales fall, Greiner puts sustainable packaging message on the road, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever falls noticeably short of its ground-breaking predecessor, Review: Mamma Mia! A census is being conducted in Northern Ireland only a hundred years after the UK government split the island of Ireland in half, keeping the northern part and creating an independent Irish Republic in the south. Keep up with the latest from FactCheckNI with out email newsletter. The former category includes Protestant religions such as Pentecostal and Free Presbyterian, as well as other Christian religions as Church of England or Jehovahs Witness. 2 February - GCSE, AS and A Level qualifications will be calculated by schools in 2021, it is confirmed. The population has increased by more than 90,000 in a . Read More not exclusively by non-respondents or non-religious people). A Nisra spokesperson said: "Population increase was greatest in the older age groups. An increase of 5.1% since the 2011 Census. The latest census was published on Thursday. Includes crime statistics, cultural and religious matters. TWEET. Details The statistics provide estimates of the Northern Ireland population by five-year age band and sex, residence type, and the Northern Ireland household count with average household. Headline population statistics by age and sex, the number of households with usual residents, and communal establishment population. Laurence CooleyMarch 15, 2021Politics. This looks set to continue as the 'baby boom' generation of the 1950s and 1960s reach retirement age. 9.7% of people who in 2001 belonged to a Christian religion did not state the same religion for where they were brought up in . The data, published on Thursday, focuses on main language, passports and national identity, which all points to an increasingly diverse population. Estimates in this release will be published in rounded form. Keeping your data safe. The same goes for religions outside of Christianity. Seen as belonging to any of the three main Protestant churches, less than 50% of the population has been Protestant since 1981. NISRA notes this can be partly explained by an increase in the proportion of people who either had no religion or no stated religion (from 14 per cent to 17 per cent) and the more than doubling of the prevalence rate for Other religions (from 0.3 per cent to 0.8 per cent). Wed like to set additional cookies to understand how you use GOV.UK, remember your settings and improve government services. This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. In Scotland, the brought up in question was asked in the 2001 census, in addition to a belonging to question. https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/background-to-the-religion-and-religion-brought-up-in-questions-in-the-census-and-their-analysis-in-2001-and-2011.pdf, on the basis of the best available information, https://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/census2011analysis/religion/index.aspx, Canadian Census Edit and Imputation System, Belonging to or brought up in Protestant or other Christian denominations, Belonging to or brought up in other religions or philosophies, Belonging to or brought up in no religion. The 2011 Census recorded 48% of the population as . Long-term demographic trends suggest Census 2021 could be the first in the history of the region to record more Catholics than Protestants within the population. Long-term demographic trends suggest Census 2021 could be the . . The new question is only meant for those who stated they belonged to no religion and those who did not answer the belonging to question. Home / Communal counting: The Northern Ireland census, > Communal counting: The Northern Ireland census, 6 March 2019 Read about our approach to external linking. The table below summarises the changes resulting from the additional question: At 48.4%, it is true that 2011 was the first time that this category of Belonging to or brought up in Protestant and Other Christian denominations represented less than half of the Northern Ireland population. It also showed an ageing Protestant community too, with only those over 60 having a significant majority, while the number of Catholic schoolchildren was notably greater than their Protestant counterparts. In the methodology document of the 2001 census, it is stated that the resultant community background data are of use in informing employment and other equality monitoring. Among the questions posed is one asking to what religion, religious denomination or body you belong. EMAIL. Read about our approach to external linking. The latest figures show that the current population of Northern Ireland has increased by 5% since the last census in 2011. The Census Act (Northern Ireland) 1969 indicates that those who do not complete the question about religion shall not be subject to any penalty for refusing to do so. The current estimate of the population in Northern Ireland is about 1.9 million, 'I had to destroy a truck-load of beer' Video, Crypto market rocked as FTX rescue deal collapses, Late Microsoft boss's art fetches record $1.5bn, The rise - and possible fall - of Lauren Boebert, Top Iranian actress poses without headscarf, Harsher sentence for wife of spy convicted in US, UK-Swiss science deal as both barred from EU scheme, Democrat who nearly died keeps partys hopes alive. The short, tumultuous reign of Edwin Poots resulted in his own net approval rating of -52%, with just16% thinking he was doing a good job according to the previous poll. In England and Wales, there is one category: Christians (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations). Mr Feeney said that while he expected the official statistics to show continued growth in the Catholic population, numbers had not increased at a rate that would see them overtake Protestants. The total of 1.9 million is the highest figure recorded since Northern Ireland was established in 1921. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) has released further results from the census held on 21 March 2021. THE first results of the 2021 census are expected to emerge in March, however, the much-anticipated data showing the regional religious breakdown may not be published for a further six months.. Likewise, 41.6% of people who stated they belonged to no religion stated a different response to what they were brought up in. He also noted that a Catholic majority doesn't automatically translate into a nationalist one. Coogan questioned the results of previous censuses and pointed to efforts by two Dublin demographers in 1991 to categorize people whose religion was "not stated" as Catholics or Protestants in the 1991 Northern Ireland census. Renowned Irish historian and author Tim Pat Coogan has urged Irish-American politicians to scrutinize the handling of the 2021 Northern Irish census, claiming that Catholic numbers have been under-reported for decades due to "bogus statistics". Coogan also said that he had an off-the-record conversion with an Irish cabinet minister "who would later become Taoiseach" in 2001, who told him that the Catholic population in Northern Ireland was closer to 48 percent. In Scotland, the category Other Christian is also shown in the census results. It is a system developed by Statistics Canada, based on the Nearest-neighbour Imputation Methodology. Details about the population's religious make-up will be published in the autumn. Includes home ownership, poverty, and how takes are spent. Tables are provided for Northern Ireland and the 11 Local Government Districts. 2022 BBC. The 2011 census, the findings of which were published the following year, showed that the Protestant population had declined to 48 per cent and the Catholic minority had risen to 45 per cent. A spokesperson for the Department of Finance said a "working timetable" for the census results would be published at the end of this month, providing a schedule for when key statistics will be released throughout the year. So the results of Census 2021 in Northern Ireland have now been released. Northern Ireland's Parliament Buildings, often referred to as Stormont because of its location in the Stormont Estate area of Belfast. Jordan Lewis In the UK, the Canadian Census Edit and Imputation System is used for imputation. "Even if it does not, population growth will continue on the nationalist side whether loyalists, London, or sections of decision-taking Dublin like it or not.". Thus the decennial exercise of the Northern Ireland population census has an added sensitivity and importance. Includes Brexit, the Irish border, passports, Good Friday Agreement. The press release for the 2011 Census explained that the prevalence rates for the main religions were: Catholic (41 per cent); Presbyterian (19 per cent); Church of Ireland (14 per cent); Methodist (3.0 per cent). Coogan penned an op-ed in the Irish News and said that the census was the most significant event to take place in Northern Ireland in 2021, even as the region recovers from several days of violent Loyalist rioting. Copyright 2022 Irish Studio LLC All rights reserved. Northern Ireland's 2021 census has shown that for the first time in 101 years of history of the region, 45.7% of the population are Catholic while 43.5% are Protestant. Projected growth varies substantially between the four countries of the UK: England's population is projected to grow by 5.0% over this period; for Northern Ireland, the figure is 3.7%; while. Well never share you email address. The Northern Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) has revealed the schedule for publication of the 2021 census. The religion question in Scotland provides three options for the Christian religion: Church of Scotland, Roman Catholic, and Other Christian. Includes reproductive rights, mental health, nutrition and COVID-19. "The number of people aged 65 or more rose by more than 60,000 to nearly one third of a million people - a near 25% increase on 2011. What does this information on Religion and Religion Brought up in contain, and was 2011 really the first time the majority of the population of Northern Ireland was not Protestant? These two religious denominations are also used as proxy for British unionist and Irish nationalist identities. The demographers reallocated the "not stated" replies as Catholics in the 1991 census if there was "both a knowledge of the Irish language and above average fertility". Coogan disputed this claim and said that Catholics will soon overtake Protestants in Northern Ireland regardless of any results that the census returns. The 2021 census will be released on May 24 th. Population 1,903,175 Households 768,810 Broad age. Outside the orange and green bubble, the census reveals the growth in multi cultural Northern Ireland with the number of those belonging to ethnic minority groups doubling to 3.4 percent since 2011. Other responses were categorised as Other Christian (including Christian-related) (2) or Other Religions and Philosophies (3), which was done on the basis of the best available information. This article seeks to explain the data collection by the Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency and some of their methods in calculating Protestants and Catholics. The official census website outlines what happens with the information gathered. Religions, apart from the four main churches, were not broken up into two separate groups (Other Christian and Other religions), but were instead brought together into the group Other denominations. The question, which allowed the respondent to record multiple national identities, is presented in Figures 1 (online) . "Dramatic change may come as soon as next year's assembly elections, which could conceivably see a Sinn Fin First Minister returned to Stormont," he said. The first phase of main statistics results from Census 2021 are now available. "This demonstrates the scale of population change due to ageing. This produces data that other statutory agencies find useful. The NI Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) announced the figures on Tuesday. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Belfast Live See more videos SHARE. Follow Census 2021 on Twitter and Facebook @NICensus2021. We use some essential cookies to make this website work. FactCheckNI is Northern Irelands first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and averified signatoryto the International Fact-Checking NetworksCode of Principles. Given The 45%/48% figure has been widely shared by media outlets: BBC, Belfast Telegraph [1] [2], Irish Times, iNews. Dont include personal or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details. 44% of those who self-categorised as No religion or not stated, or 7.5% of the whole population, did not give a response to this question. Dont worry we wont send you spam or share your email address with anyone. It's a long road to a United Ireland, America hasnt gone away on Irish unity despite some Irish efforts, This delightful Irish Teddy collection will put a smile on your face, Rishi Sunak likely to delay Northern Ireland Protocol decision. Accordingly, and unlike other questions, the percentage of the population who did not state a religion is given in the results. Including non-religious people and non-respondents who were brought up in Protestant or other Christian denominations, less than half of the population has been Protestant since 2011. View the results on the NISRA website. 9.7% of people who in 2001 belonged to a Christian religion did not state the same religion for where they were brought up in. Dr Paul Nolan, who specialises in monitoring the peace process and social. Census Office, situated within the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), will lead on the development and implementation of all elements of the 2021 Census. https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/census-2021-population-and-household-estimates-for-northern-ireland. For some, a Protestant-majority population provides assurance of continuation of the Union with Great Britain; for others, a Catholic-majority population means a call for a referendum for a united Ireland. The safety of your information is our top priority. Census figures outlining the religious make-up and sense of national identity of people in Northern Ireland will be published later. "Their outlook would be based on the fact that they simply don't know what this new Ireland will look like nobody has yet to define it.". In favor of the 1950s and 1960s reach retirement age census recorded 48 of! Nisra ) announced the figures on Tuesday they belonged to another religion or none soon. 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